Valued Customers
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | LLM | vs LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | WR | WR | ✓ 29.4 | 18.1 | 22.0 | +7.4 |
| Emanuel Wilson (bench) | RB | BE | ✓ 1.4 | 5.6 | 6.0 | -4.6 |
| Jameson Williams (bench) | WR | BE | ✓ 26.9 | 11.8 | 18.0 | +8.9 |
| Jordan Love (bench) | QB | BE | ✓ 25.8 | 15.7 | 21.0 | +4.8 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB | 17.2 | 20.0 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB | 11.8 | 14.0 |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | RB | 9.9 | 8.0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR | 21.9 | 24.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE | 8.7 | 13.0 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | RB/WR/TE | 13.2 | 17.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | K | 8.5 | 10.0 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 7.5 | 10.0 |
| Evan Engram (bench) | TE | BE | 8.1 | 6.0 |
| Keenan Allen (bench) | WR | BE | 12.0 | 19.0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) | WR | BE | 13.7 | --- |
| Omarion Hampton (bench) | RB | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | vs ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | RB | ✓ 11.6 | 20.9 | -9.3 |
| Rome Odunze | WR | WR | ✓ 2.8 | 13.5 | -10.7 |
| Harrison Butker | K | K | ✓ 4.0 | 8.7 | -4.7 |
| Kareem Hunt (bench) | RB | BE | ✓ 9.0 | 9.3 | -0.3 |
| Romeo Doubs (bench) | WR | BE | ✓ 12.0 | 11.0 | +1.0 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | QB | QB | 15.5 |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | RB | 15.2 |
| Michael Wilson | WR | WR | 11.5 |
| Trey McBride | TE | TE | 17.3 |
| DK Metcalf | WR | RB/WR/TE | 13.3 |
| Jaguars D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 7.2 |
| Devin Neal (bench) | RB | BE | 11.1 |
| Jordan Addison (bench) | WR | BE | 8.6 |
| Mason Taylor (bench) | TE | BE | 8.5 |
| Quentin Johnston (bench) | WR | BE | 10.0 |
| Shedeur Sanders (bench) | QB | BE | 11.8 |
Week 13 vs 4th and pinches (8-4): Strong position after Thanksgiving games. **Thursday Results:** - Rashee Rice: 29.4 pts (STARTER - excellent) - Jordan Love: 25.8 pts (BENCH - solid backup performance) - Jameson Williams: 26.9 pts (BENCH - BOOM, unfortunate bench) - Emanuel Wilson: 1.4 pts (BENCH - expected bust) **Sunday Outlook:** Projected starter total: 145.4 pts vs opponent's 98.5 pts projected. Win probability: 82%. Main concerns: Irving injury (54.5% XGBoost bust probability), McMillan in rain vs LAR defense. **Key Advantages:** - JSN is WR1 overall, elite matchup vs MIN (4th worst vs WR) - Rams D/ST elite matchup vs struggling CAR (70% rain helps) - Brissett has sneaky upside vs TB pass defense (6th worst)
| Slot | Player | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLEX | Jacoby Brissett | TB | 17.2 | 20.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| FLEX | Bucky Irving | ARI | 11.8 | 14.0 | BUST | LOW |
| FLEX | Tyjae Spears | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| FLEX | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | MIN | 21.9 | 24.0 | MODERATE | HIGH |
| FLEX | Rashee Rice | DAL | 18.1 | 22.0 | BOOM | HIGH |
| FLEX | Tetairoa McMillan | LAR | 13.2 | 17.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| FLEX | Juwan Johnson | MIA | 8.7 | 13.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| FLEX | Jason Myers | MIN | 8.5 | 10.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| FLEX | Rams D/ST | CAR | 7.5 | 10.0 | MODERATE | HIGH |
QB: Start Brissett over Love - Love already played (25.8 pts bench). Brissett has favorable TB matchup.
FLEX: Start McMillan over Keenan Allen - McMillan WR13 ECR vs Allen WR23. McMillan emerging as CAR WR1 despite rain.
TE: Start Juwan Johnson over Evan Engram - Johnson TE9 ECR vs Engram TE21. Engram has been disappointing in 2025.
BENCH REGRET: Start Jameson Williams BOOMED on bench over - 26.9 pts on Thanksgiving while benched. High-variance player hit ceiling.
| Player | Pos | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 50.1% | 36.0% | 13.9% | MEDIUM |
| Jordan Love | QB | 28.4% | 50.7% | 20.9% | MEDIUM |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 25.7% | 56.1% | 18.2% | MEDIUM |
| Evan Engram | TE | 25.3% | 49.2% | 25.5% | MEDIUM |
| Keenan Allen | WR | 25.3% | 50.4% | 24.3% | MEDIUM |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 21.1% | 53.5% | 25.4% | MEDIUM |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 21.1% | 58.8% | 20.1% | MEDIUM |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 20.8% | 60.9% | 18.2% | MEDIUM |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 19.4% | 37.0% | 43.6% | LOW |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 18.1% | 49.0% | 32.9% | MEDIUM |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 13.2% | 59.8% | 26.9% | MEDIUM |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 13.0% | 53.8% | 33.2% | MEDIUM |
| Jason Myers | K | 12.0% | 46.0% | 42.1% | MEDIUM |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | 10.7% | 55.1% | 34.2% | MEDIUM |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 9.5% | 36.0% | 54.5% | MEDIUM |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 8.3% | 37.3% | 54.4% | MEDIUM |
Projections: ESPN 15.7 | LLM 21.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: vs DET (COMPLETED). MIA defense 28th vs QB. Game total 47.0. MC moderate mode peak ~21. Adverse weather (32F, snow) caps ceiling. Picked moderate mode. ACTUAL: 25.8 pts (closer to BOOM).
Context: O/U: 47.0 | Def Rank: 28 | ECR: 16
XGBoost: Boom 28% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 17.2 | LLM 20.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: vs TB. QB10 ECR, starting for ARI. TB allows 6th most passing yards. Game total 43.5. MC moderate mode at 20. Good streaming option.
Context: O/U: 43.5 | Def Rank: 27 | ECR: 10
XGBoost: Boom 19% | Bust 44% (LOW)
Projections: ESPN 11.8 | LLM 14.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: vs ARI. Injury concern (foot/shoulder), limited snaps expected. RB23 ECR. MC shows 15% OUT scenario, 42% bust. XGBoost 54.5% bust prob. Conservative at bust mode 14.
Context: O/U: 43.5 | Def Rank: 25 | ECR: 23
XGBoost: Boom 10% | Bust 55% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: vs JAX. RB36 ECR, timeshare with Pollard. JAX run defense average. MC moderate mode at 8. Limited upside in committee.
Context: O/U: 41.5 | Def Rank: 30 | ECR: 36
XGBoost: Boom 13% | Bust 33% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (OUT)
Reasoning: On IR with LAC. No projection.
Context: O/U: 44.5
XGBoost: Boom 8% | Bust 54% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 5.6 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: vs DET (COMPLETED). Backup RB with limited touches. MC bust mode at 2-6. Picked upper bust. ACTUAL: 1.4 pts (BUST confirmed).
Context: O/U: 47.0 | ECR: 50
XGBoost: Boom 11% | Bust 34% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 21.9 | LLM 24.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: vs MIN. WR1 ECR, elite floor. SEA -12.5 favorite, implied total 27.0. MIN allows 4th most to WRs. MC moderate mode peak at 23. Conservative within moderate at 24.
Context: O/U: 41.5 | Def Rank: 18 | ECR: 1
XGBoost: Boom 50% | Bust 14% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 17.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: vs LAR. WR13 ECR, emerging as CAR WR1. LAR has solid pass defense. Charlotte weather has 70% rain - may limit passing. MC moderate mode at 17.
Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 13
XGBoost: Boom 21% | Bust 18% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM N/A (OUT)
Reasoning: vs TB. Confirmed OUT - appendicitis surgery Nov 10. ESPN still projects 13.7 (bug). Setting to 0.0.
Context: O/U: 43.5 | Def Rank: 15 | ECR: 27
XGBoost: Boom 26% | Bust 18% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 18.1 | LLM 22.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: vs DAL (COMPLETED). DAL defense struggles vs WR. High game total. MC boom mode at 24. WR1 ECR. Picked lower end of boom mode. ACTUAL: 29.4 pts (BOOM confirmed).
Context: Def Rank: 28 | ECR: 1
XGBoost: Boom 13% | Bust 27% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 11.8 | LLM 18.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: vs GB (COMPLETED). Highly volatile player (CV 0.85). MC moderate mode at 18. GB defense solid. Picked moderate. ACTUAL: 26.9 pts (BOOM - benched!).
Context: ECR: 16
XGBoost: Boom 21% | Bust 20% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 12.0 | LLM 19.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: vs LV. WR23 ECR. LV allows 4th most to WRs. LAC implied total 25.0. MC moderate at 19. Good matchup but competing for targets.
Context: O/U: 40.5 | Def Rank: 28 | ECR: 23
XGBoost: Boom 25% | Bust 24% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: vs WSH. TE21 ECR, disappointing 2025. WSH allows above average to TE. MC moderate at 6. Low volume expected.
Context: O/U: 43.5 | Def Rank: 29 | ECR: 21
XGBoost: Boom 25% | Bust 26% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 8.7 | LLM 13.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: vs MIA. TE9 ECR, streamer option. MIA defense middling vs TE. MC moderate mode at 13. Carr connection solid.
Context: O/U: 41.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 9
XGBoost: Boom 21% | Bust 25% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 15.7 | LLM 21.0
XGBoost: Boom 28% | Bust 21%
Notes: vs DET (COMPLETED). MIA defense 28th vs QB. Game total 47.0. MC moderate mode peak ~21. Adverse weather (32F, snow) caps ceiling. Picked moderate mode. ACTUAL: 25.8 pts (closer to BOOM).
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0
XGBoost: Boom 25% | Bust 26%
Notes: vs WSH. TE21 ECR, disappointing 2025. WSH allows above average to TE. MC moderate at 6. Low volume expected.
Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM N/A
XGBoost: Boom 26% | Bust 18%
Notes: vs TB. Confirmed OUT - appendicitis surgery Nov 10. ESPN still projects 13.7 (bug). Setting to 0.0.
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A
XGBoost: Boom 8% | Bust 54%
Notes: On IR with LAC. No projection.
Projections: ESPN 11.8 | LLM 18.0
XGBoost: Boom 21% | Bust 20%
Notes: vs GB (COMPLETED). Highly volatile player (CV 0.85). MC moderate mode at 18. GB defense solid. Picked moderate. ACTUAL: 26.9 pts (BOOM - benched!).
Projections: ESPN 5.6 | LLM 6.0
XGBoost: Boom 11% | Bust 34%
Notes: vs DET (COMPLETED). Backup RB with limited touches. MC bust mode at 2-6. Picked upper bust. ACTUAL: 1.4 pts (BUST confirmed).
Projections: ESPN 12.0 | LLM 19.0
XGBoost: Boom 25% | Bust 24%
Notes: vs LV. WR23 ECR. LV allows 4th most to WRs. LAC implied total 25.0. MC moderate at 19. Good matchup but competing for targets.
Win Probability
Floor: -33.2 pts | Median: +10.0 pts | Ceiling: +50.5 pts
When opponent starters are injured, the system models likely bench substitutions to provide more accurate win probability estimates. (ESPN projections shown - LLM projections only available for our team)
| Position | Injured Starter | Status | ESPN Proj | Replacement | Repl ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Baker Mayfield | QUESTIONABLE | 16.7 | Shedeur Sanders | 5.9 |
Win probability weighted across multiple injury scenarios.
| Scenario | Probability | Opp Total EV | Win Prob | Expected Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All injured starters play | 85.0% | 132.4 | 61.1% | +9.2 |
| All injured starters out | 15.0% | 125.3 | 69.2% | +15.9 |
Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑ = P(>15pts) | ↓ = P(<5pts)
Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | MED | 20.0 | 0.8-27.4 | ↑89% ↓11% | |
| Bucky Irving | RB | HIGH | 14.0 | 0.0-28.3 | ↑74% ↓15% | |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | HIGH | 8.0 | 3.6-19.0 | ↑22% ↓10% | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | LOW | 24.0 | 15.6-36.2 | ↑91% ↓0% | |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | MED | 17.0 | 7.7-29.4 | ↑45% ↓0% | |
| Rashee Rice | WR | LOW | 29.4 | 11.1-27.6 | ↑84% ↓0% | |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | MED | 13.0 | 2.9-17.6 | ↑18% ↓22% | |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 10.0 | 3.2-18.9 | ↑14% ↓16% | |
| Jason Myers | K | MED | 10.0 | 7.4-16.2 | ↑23% ↓7% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | QB | MED | 25.8 | 9.0-27.6 | ↑61% ↓0% | |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | HIGH | 0.0 | 4.2-27.0 | ↑41% ↓16% | |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | HIGH | 1.4 | 1.0-24.3 | ↑11% ↓49% | |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | HIGH | 0.0 | 0.0-20.5 | ↑35% ↓22% | |
| Jameson Williams | WR | HIGH | 26.9 | 1.1-22.2 | ↑50% ↓39% | |
| Keenan Allen | WR | HIGH | 19.0 | 5.9-28.7 | ↑50% ↓4% | |
| Evan Engram | TE | HIGH | 6.0 | 2.7-12.5 | ↑0% ↓34% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | QB | HIGH | 13.2 | 0.0-23.1 | ↑50% ↓28% | |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | MED | 28.6 | 10.9-46.2 | ↑76% ↓0% | |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | HIGH | 14.5 | 3.4-32.1 | ↑30% ↓28% | |
| DK Metcalf | WR | MED | 12.5 | 5.4-22.3 | ↑28% ↓10% | |
| Rome Odunze | WR | HIGH | 13.2 | 2.8-22.4 | ↑50% ↓27% | |
| Michael Wilson | WR | HIGH | 14.9 | 3.3-31.4 | ↑50% ↓23% | |
| Trey McBride | TE | MED | 19.4 | 11.6-28.6 | ↑65% ↓0% | |
| Jaguars D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 7.0 | 0.3-13.3 | ↑1% ↓36% | |
| Harrison Butker | K | MED | 9.3 | 4.8-14.5 | ↑9% ↓12% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shedeur Sanders | QB | HIGH | 6.0 | 0.5-12.7 | ↑1% ↓46% | |
| Kareem Hunt | RB | HIGH | 10.4 | 3.1-19.0 | ↑28% ↓34% | |
| Devin Neal | RB | HIGH | 4.8 | 0.6-10.7 | ↑0% ↓52% | |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | HIGH | 12.2 | 0.0-24.3 | ↑31% ↓20% | |
| Jordan Addison | WR | HIGH | 11.1 | 0.0-21.1 | ↑22% ↓13% | |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | HIGH | 11.0 | 2.8-22.1 | ↑14% ↓24% | |
| Mason Taylor | TE | HIGH | 8.9 | 2.0-16.3 | ↑14% ↓37% |
| Player | Position | BOOM | MODERATE | BUST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | 28% @ 28.1 | 18% @ 19.9 | 39% @ 15.6 | 17.5 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 10% @ 39.0 | 81% @ 23.9 | 9% @ 13.7 | 24.5 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 10% @ 31.3 | 40% @ 16.1 | 50% @ 9.6 | 14.3 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 60% @ 26.7 | 24% @ 20.5 | 16% @ 10.8 | 22.7 |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 22% @ 18.9 | 67% @ 8.8 | 10% @ 1.5 | 10.3 |
| Jason Myers | K | 46% @ 15.1 | 45% @ 9.2 | 9% @ 4.2 | 11.5 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 10% @ 19.2 | 63% @ 12.6 | 27% @ 3.7 | 10.8 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 22% @ 27.3 | 67% @ 22.1 | 10% @ 0.2 | 21.0 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 10% @ 21.0 | 81% @ 9.2 | 9% @ -2.1 | 9.4 |
No urgent waiver moves needed. Consider streaming options at TE if Engram continues underperforming. Watch for Irving injury updates - if limited, may need RB help for Week 14.
This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.
| Type | Source | Claim | Actual | Resolution | Verified By |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Matchup Correction |
Vegas Lines Subagent | Original game list had incorrect matchups (SEA vs NYJ, etc.) | Corrected to actual Week 13 matchups: MIN @ SEA, ARI @ TB, KC @ DAL, GB @ DET | Used corrected matchups from Vegas subagent web searches | NFL.com schedule, ESPN API roster data |
Subagent Partial Data |
Defense Matchups Subagent | Expected complete 1-32 rankings for all opponents | Returned partial data with many 'Unk' values - only ~30% complete | Used available ranks (WSH 30th vs RB, LV 28th vs WR, CLE 2nd vs RB) and defaults for missing | FantasyPros points allowed referenced in subagent output |
Injury Status Conflict |
XGBoost Boom/Bust Model | Bucky Irving has 54.5% bust probability | Irving returning from 8-week injury, expected ~36% snap share per Coach Bowles | Verified return status via Buccaneers.com - playing but limited snaps | WebSearch - Buccaneers official site, Pro Football Network |
Projection Mismatch |
ESPN API (IBM watsonx) | Marvin Harrison Jr. projected 13.7 points | MHJ practiced LIMITED Wed/Thu after Nov 10 appendicitis surgery - still questionable | Set is_confirmed_out=true, LLM projection = 0.0 (conservative) | Pro Football Network, AZ Cardinals official site |
Weather Alert |
Weather Subagent | Normal conditions expected for all games | Denver has HIGH WIND (21 mph) - significant passing game impact | Downgraded Evan Engram confidence to LOW, noted in weekly context | AccuWeather Denver forecast |
Fallback Triggered |
generate_weekly_mc_report.generate_mc_report | Expected weekly context file for Week 13 | File not found - no LLM-gathered context available | Using default boom/bust probabilities (no opportunity adjustments) | Unk |
Api Failure |
generate_weekly_report.read_mc_report | Expected successful Monte Carlo generation | Exception: No weekly context for 'Bucky Irving'. Available: [] | Report generation halted - investigate error before publishing | Unk |
Api Failure |
generate_weekly_report.read_mc_report | Expected successful Monte Carlo generation | Exception: '<=' not supported between instances of 'str' and 'int' | Report generation halted - investigate error before publishing | Unk |
Api Failure |
generate_weekly_report.read_mc_report | Expected successful Monte Carlo generation | Exception: '>' not supported between instances of 'NoneType' and 'int' | Report generation halted - investigate error before publishing | Unk |
Log timestamp: 2025-11-29T17:06:38.871528