Week 13 Fantasy Football Analysis

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Generated: 2025-11-29 17:06

Matchup Status (Week 13)

29.4 - 18.4 vs 4th and pinches

Games Completed (4)

PlayerPosSlotActualESPNLLMvs LLM
Rashee Rice WR WR ✓ 29.4 18.1 22.0 +7.4
Emanuel Wilson (bench) RB BE ✓ 1.4 5.6 6.0 -4.6
Jameson Williams (bench) WR BE ✓ 26.9 11.8 18.0 +8.9
Jordan Love (bench) QB BE ✓ 25.8 15.7 21.0 +4.8

Games Pending (12)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Jacoby Brissett QB QB 17.2 20.0
Bucky Irving RB RB 11.8 14.0
Tyjae Spears RB RB 9.9 8.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR WR 21.9 24.0
Juwan Johnson TE TE 8.7 13.0
Tetairoa McMillan WR RB/WR/TE 13.2 17.0
Jason Myers K K 8.5 10.0
Rams D/ST D/ST D/ST 7.5 10.0
Evan Engram (bench) TE BE 8.1 6.0
Keenan Allen (bench) WR BE 12.0 19.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) WR BE 13.7 ---
Omarion Hampton (bench) RB BE 0.0 ---
29.4 Starter Actuals
116.0 Remaining Proj
145.4 Est. Total

Opponent: 4th and pinches

Opponent Games Completed (5)

PlayerPosSlotActualESPNvs ESPN
Jahmyr Gibbs RB RB ✓ 11.6 20.9 -9.3
Rome Odunze WR WR ✓ 2.8 13.5 -10.7
Harrison Butker K K ✓ 4.0 8.7 -4.7
Kareem Hunt (bench) RB BE ✓ 9.0 9.3 -0.3
Romeo Doubs (bench) WR BE ✓ 12.0 11.0 +1.0

Opponent Games Pending (11)

PlayerPosSlotESPN
Baker Mayfield QB QB 15.5
Rico Dowdle RB RB 15.2
Michael Wilson WR WR 11.5
Trey McBride TE TE 17.3
DK Metcalf WR RB/WR/TE 13.3
Jaguars D/ST D/ST D/ST 7.2
Devin Neal (bench) RB BE 11.1
Jordan Addison (bench) WR BE 8.6
Mason Taylor (bench) TE BE 8.5
Quentin Johnston (bench) WR BE 10.0
Shedeur Sanders (bench) QB BE 11.8
18.4 Opp Actuals
80.1 Opp Remaining
98.5 Opp Est. Total
Projected Margin: +46.9 pts

Executive Summary

Week 13 vs 4th and pinches (8-4): Strong position after Thanksgiving games. **Thursday Results:** - Rashee Rice: 29.4 pts (STARTER - excellent) - Jordan Love: 25.8 pts (BENCH - solid backup performance) - Jameson Williams: 26.9 pts (BENCH - BOOM, unfortunate bench) - Emanuel Wilson: 1.4 pts (BENCH - expected bust) **Sunday Outlook:** Projected starter total: 145.4 pts vs opponent's 98.5 pts projected. Win probability: 82%. Main concerns: Irving injury (54.5% XGBoost bust probability), McMillan in rain vs LAR defense. **Key Advantages:** - JSN is WR1 overall, elite matchup vs MIN (4th worst vs WR) - Rams D/ST elite matchup vs struggling CAR (70% rain helps) - Brissett has sneaky upside vs TB pass defense (6th worst)

Key Insights

Recommended Starting Lineup

SlotPlayerOppESPNLLMModeConfidence
FLEXJacoby BrissettTB17.220.0MODERATEMEDIUM
FLEXBucky IrvingARI11.814.0BUSTLOW
FLEXTyjae SpearsJAX9.98.0MODERATEMEDIUM
FLEXJaxon Smith-NjigbaMIN21.924.0MODERATEHIGH
FLEXRashee RiceDAL18.122.0BOOMHIGH
FLEXTetairoa McMillanLAR13.217.0MODERATEMEDIUM
FLEXJuwan JohnsonMIA8.713.0MODERATEMEDIUM
FLEXJason MyersMIN8.510.0MODERATEMEDIUM
FLEXRams D/STCAR7.510.0MODERATEHIGH

Lineup Decisions

QB: Start Brissett over Love - Love already played (25.8 pts bench). Brissett has favorable TB matchup.

FLEX: Start McMillan over Keenan Allen - McMillan WR13 ECR vs Allen WR23. McMillan emerging as CAR WR1 despite rain.

TE: Start Juwan Johnson over Evan Engram - Johnson TE9 ECR vs Engram TE21. Engram has been disappointing in 2025.

BENCH REGRET: Start Jameson Williams BOOMED on bench over - 26.9 pts on Thanksgiving while benched. High-variance player hit ceiling.

XGBoost Boom/Bust Analysis

PlayerPosBoom%Mod%Bust%Confidence
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR50.1%36.0%13.9%MEDIUM
Jordan LoveQB28.4%50.7%20.9%MEDIUM
Marvin Harrison Jr.WR25.7%56.1%18.2%MEDIUM
Evan EngramTE25.3%49.2%25.5%MEDIUM
Keenan AllenWR25.3%50.4%24.3%MEDIUM
Juwan JohnsonTE21.1%53.5%25.4%MEDIUM
Jameson WilliamsWR21.1%58.8%20.1%MEDIUM
Tetairoa McMillanWR20.8%60.9%18.2%MEDIUM
Jacoby BrissettQB19.4%37.0%43.6%LOW
Rams D/STD/ST18.1%49.0%32.9%MEDIUM
Rashee RiceWR13.2%59.8%26.9%MEDIUM
Tyjae SpearsRB13.0%53.8%33.2%MEDIUM
Jason MyersK12.0%46.0%42.1%MEDIUM
Emanuel WilsonRB10.7%55.1%34.2%MEDIUM
Bucky IrvingRB9.5%36.0%54.5%MEDIUM
Omarion HamptonRB8.3%37.3%54.4%MEDIUM

Jordan Love (GB vs DET)

Projections: ESPN 15.7 | LLM 21.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: vs DET (COMPLETED). MIA defense 28th vs QB. Game total 47.0. MC moderate mode peak ~21. Adverse weather (32F, snow) caps ceiling. Picked moderate mode. ACTUAL: 25.8 pts (closer to BOOM).

Context: O/U: 47.0 | Def Rank: 28 | ECR: 16

XGBoost: Boom 28% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)


Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs TB)

Projections: ESPN 17.2 | LLM 20.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: vs TB. QB10 ECR, starting for ARI. TB allows 6th most passing yards. Game total 43.5. MC moderate mode at 20. Good streaming option.

Context: O/U: 43.5 | Def Rank: 27 | ECR: 10

XGBoost: Boom 19% | Bust 44% (LOW)


Bucky Irving (TB vs ARI)

Projections: ESPN 11.8 | LLM 14.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: vs ARI. Injury concern (foot/shoulder), limited snaps expected. RB23 ECR. MC shows 15% OUT scenario, 42% bust. XGBoost 54.5% bust prob. Conservative at bust mode 14.

Context: O/U: 43.5 | Def Rank: 25 | ECR: 23

XGBoost: Boom 10% | Bust 55% (MEDIUM)


Tyjae Spears (TEN vs JAX)

Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: vs JAX. RB36 ECR, timeshare with Pollard. JAX run defense average. MC moderate mode at 8. Limited upside in committee.

Context: O/U: 41.5 | Def Rank: 30 | ECR: 36

XGBoost: Boom 13% | Bust 33% (MEDIUM)


Omarion Hampton (CAR vs LAR)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (OUT)

Reasoning: On IR with LAC. No projection.

Context: O/U: 44.5

XGBoost: Boom 8% | Bust 54% (MEDIUM)


Emanuel Wilson (GB vs DET)

Projections: ESPN 5.6 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: vs DET (COMPLETED). Backup RB with limited touches. MC bust mode at 2-6. Picked upper bust. ACTUAL: 1.4 pts (BUST confirmed).

Context: O/U: 47.0 | ECR: 50

XGBoost: Boom 11% | Bust 34% (MEDIUM)


Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs MIN)

Projections: ESPN 21.9 | LLM 24.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: vs MIN. WR1 ECR, elite floor. SEA -12.5 favorite, implied total 27.0. MIN allows 4th most to WRs. MC moderate mode peak at 23. Conservative within moderate at 24.

Context: O/U: 41.5 | Def Rank: 18 | ECR: 1

XGBoost: Boom 50% | Bust 14% (MEDIUM)


Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs LAR)

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 17.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: vs LAR. WR13 ECR, emerging as CAR WR1. LAR has solid pass defense. Charlotte weather has 70% rain - may limit passing. MC moderate mode at 17.

Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 13

XGBoost: Boom 21% | Bust 18% (MEDIUM)


Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs TB)

Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM N/A (OUT)

Reasoning: vs TB. Confirmed OUT - appendicitis surgery Nov 10. ESPN still projects 13.7 (bug). Setting to 0.0.

Context: O/U: 43.5 | Def Rank: 15 | ECR: 27

XGBoost: Boom 26% | Bust 18% (MEDIUM)


Rashee Rice (KC vs DAL)

Projections: ESPN 18.1 | LLM 22.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: vs DAL (COMPLETED). DAL defense struggles vs WR. High game total. MC boom mode at 24. WR1 ECR. Picked lower end of boom mode. ACTUAL: 29.4 pts (BOOM confirmed).

Context: Def Rank: 28 | ECR: 1

XGBoost: Boom 13% | Bust 27% (MEDIUM)


Jameson Williams (DET vs GB)

Projections: ESPN 11.8 | LLM 18.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: vs GB (COMPLETED). Highly volatile player (CV 0.85). MC moderate mode at 18. GB defense solid. Picked moderate. ACTUAL: 26.9 pts (BOOM - benched!).

Context: ECR: 16

XGBoost: Boom 21% | Bust 20% (MEDIUM)


Keenan Allen (LAC vs LV)

Projections: ESPN 12.0 | LLM 19.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: vs LV. WR23 ECR. LV allows 4th most to WRs. LAC implied total 25.0. MC moderate at 19. Good matchup but competing for targets.

Context: O/U: 40.5 | Def Rank: 28 | ECR: 23

XGBoost: Boom 25% | Bust 24% (MEDIUM)


Evan Engram (DEN vs WSH)

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: vs WSH. TE21 ECR, disappointing 2025. WSH allows above average to TE. MC moderate at 6. Low volume expected.

Context: O/U: 43.5 | Def Rank: 29 | ECR: 21

XGBoost: Boom 25% | Bust 26% (MEDIUM)


Juwan Johnson (NO vs MIA)

Projections: ESPN 8.7 | LLM 13.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: vs MIA. TE9 ECR, streamer option. MIA defense middling vs TE. MC moderate mode at 13. Carr connection solid.

Context: O/U: 41.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 9

XGBoost: Boom 21% | Bust 25% (MEDIUM)


Jordan Love (QB) - GB vs DET

Projections: ESPN 15.7 | LLM 21.0

XGBoost: Boom 28% | Bust 21%

Notes: vs DET (COMPLETED). MIA defense 28th vs QB. Game total 47.0. MC moderate mode peak ~21. Adverse weather (32F, snow) caps ceiling. Picked moderate mode. ACTUAL: 25.8 pts (closer to BOOM).


Evan Engram (TE) - DEN vs WSH

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0

XGBoost: Boom 25% | Bust 26%

Notes: vs WSH. TE21 ECR, disappointing 2025. WSH allows above average to TE. MC moderate at 6. Low volume expected.


Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR) - ARI vs TB

Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM N/A

XGBoost: Boom 26% | Bust 18%

Notes: vs TB. Confirmed OUT - appendicitis surgery Nov 10. ESPN still projects 13.7 (bug). Setting to 0.0.


Omarion Hampton (RB) - CAR vs LAR

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A

XGBoost: Boom 8% | Bust 54%

Notes: On IR with LAC. No projection.


Jameson Williams (WR) - DET vs GB

Projections: ESPN 11.8 | LLM 18.0

XGBoost: Boom 21% | Bust 20%

Notes: vs GB (COMPLETED). Highly volatile player (CV 0.85). MC moderate mode at 18. GB defense solid. Picked moderate. ACTUAL: 26.9 pts (BOOM - benched!).


Emanuel Wilson (RB) - GB vs DET

Projections: ESPN 5.6 | LLM 6.0

XGBoost: Boom 11% | Bust 34%

Notes: vs DET (COMPLETED). Backup RB with limited touches. MC bust mode at 2-6. Picked upper bust. ACTUAL: 1.4 pts (BUST confirmed).


Keenan Allen (WR) - LAC vs LV

Projections: ESPN 12.0 | LLM 19.0

XGBoost: Boom 25% | Bust 24%

Notes: vs LV. WR23 ECR. LV allows 4th most to WRs. LAC implied total 25.0. MC moderate at 19. Good matchup but competing for targets.


Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 13 | Generated: 2025-11-29 17:06

Matchup Summary

61.8%

Win Probability

+9.3
Expected Margin
145.4
My Team (LLM Proj)
132.4
Opponent (Proj)
32.3
Margin Std Dev
142.0
My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -33.2 pts | Median: +10.0 pts | Ceiling: +50.5 pts

Margin Distribution

Opponent Bench Substitution Analysis

When opponent starters are injured, the system models likely bench substitutions to provide more accurate win probability estimates. (ESPN projections shown - LLM projections only available for our team)

Position Injured Starter Status ESPN Proj Replacement Repl ESPN
QB Baker Mayfield QUESTIONABLE 16.7 Shedeur Sanders 5.9

Opponent Lineup Scenarios

Win probability weighted across multiple injury scenarios.

Scenario Probability Opp Total EV Win Prob Expected Margin
All injured starters play 85.0% 132.4 61.1% +9.2
All injured starters out 15.0% 125.3 69.2% +15.9

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑ = P(>15pts) | ↓ = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jacoby Brissett QB MED 20.0 0.8-27.4 ↑89% ↓11% Jacoby Brissett
Bucky Irving RB HIGH 14.0 0.0-28.3 ↑74% ↓15% Bucky Irving
Tyjae Spears RB HIGH 8.0 3.6-19.0 ↑22% ↓10% Tyjae Spears
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR LOW 24.0 15.6-36.2 ↑91% ↓0% Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Tetairoa McMillan WR MED 17.0 7.7-29.4 ↑45% ↓0% Tetairoa McMillan
Rashee Rice WR LOW 29.4 11.1-27.6 ↑84% ↓0% Rashee Rice
Juwan Johnson TE MED 13.0 2.9-17.6 ↑18% ↓22% Juwan Johnson
Rams D/ST D/ST HIGH 10.0 3.2-18.9 ↑14% ↓16% Rams D/ST
Jason Myers K MED 10.0 7.4-16.2 ↑23% ↓7% Jason Myers

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jordan Love QB MED 25.8 9.0-27.6 ↑61% ↓0% Jordan Love
Omarion Hampton RB HIGH 0.0 4.2-27.0 ↑41% ↓16% Omarion Hampton
Emanuel Wilson RB HIGH 1.4 1.0-24.3 ↑11% ↓49% Emanuel Wilson
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR HIGH 0.0 0.0-20.5 ↑35% ↓22% Marvin Harrison Jr.
Jameson Williams WR HIGH 26.9 1.1-22.2 ↑50% ↓39% Jameson Williams
Keenan Allen WR HIGH 19.0 5.9-28.7 ↑50% ↓4% Keenan Allen
Evan Engram TE HIGH 6.0 2.7-12.5 ↑0% ↓34% Evan Engram

Opponent

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Baker Mayfield QB HIGH 13.2 0.0-23.1 ↑50% ↓28% Baker Mayfield
Jahmyr Gibbs RB MED 28.6 10.9-46.2 ↑76% ↓0% Jahmyr Gibbs
Rico Dowdle RB HIGH 14.5 3.4-32.1 ↑30% ↓28% Rico Dowdle
DK Metcalf WR MED 12.5 5.4-22.3 ↑28% ↓10% DK Metcalf
Rome Odunze WR HIGH 13.2 2.8-22.4 ↑50% ↓27% Rome Odunze
Michael Wilson WR HIGH 14.9 3.3-31.4 ↑50% ↓23% Michael Wilson
Trey McBride TE MED 19.4 11.6-28.6 ↑65% ↓0% Trey McBride
Jaguars D/ST D/ST HIGH 7.0 0.3-13.3 ↑1% ↓36% Jaguars D/ST
Harrison Butker K MED 9.3 4.8-14.5 ↑9% ↓12% Harrison Butker

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Shedeur Sanders QB HIGH 6.0 0.5-12.7 ↑1% ↓46% Shedeur Sanders
Kareem Hunt RB HIGH 10.4 3.1-19.0 ↑28% ↓34% Kareem Hunt
Devin Neal RB HIGH 4.8 0.6-10.7 ↑0% ↓52% Devin Neal
Quentin Johnston WR HIGH 12.2 0.0-24.3 ↑31% ↓20% Quentin Johnston
Jordan Addison WR HIGH 11.1 0.0-21.1 ↑22% ↓13% Jordan Addison
Romeo Doubs WR HIGH 11.0 2.8-22.1 ↑14% ↓24% Romeo Doubs
Mason Taylor TE HIGH 8.9 2.0-16.3 ↑14% ↓37% Mason Taylor

Scenario Details

Player Position BOOM MODERATE BUST EV
Bucky Irving RB 28% @ 28.1 18% @ 19.9 39% @ 15.6 17.5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 10% @ 39.0 81% @ 23.9 9% @ 13.7 24.5
Tetairoa McMillan WR 10% @ 31.3 40% @ 16.1 50% @ 9.6 14.3
Rashee Rice WR 60% @ 26.7 24% @ 20.5 16% @ 10.8 22.7
Tyjae Spears RB 22% @ 18.9 67% @ 8.8 10% @ 1.5 10.3
Jason Myers K 46% @ 15.1 45% @ 9.2 9% @ 4.2 11.5
Juwan Johnson TE 10% @ 19.2 63% @ 12.6 27% @ 3.7 10.8
Jacoby Brissett QB 22% @ 27.3 67% @ 22.1 10% @ 0.2 21.0
Rams D/ST D/ST 10% @ 21.0 81% @ 9.2 9% @ -2.1 9.4

Waiver Wire Notes

No urgent waiver moves needed. Consider streaming options at TE if Engram continues underperforming. Watch for Irving injury updates - if limited, may need RB help for Week 14.

Injury Concerns

ESPN Projection Accuracy

projection_accuracy_overall.png projection_accuracy_by_position.png projection_error_distribution.png projection_accuracy_trend.png league_team_mae_ranking.png league_bias_heatmap.png league_positional_scatter.png

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

xgb_boom_calibration.png xgb_bust_calibration.png xgb_position_calibration.png xgb_weekly_brier_trend.png xgb_feature_importance.png

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

llm_vs_espn_scatter_comparison.png llm_weekly_winners.png llm_cumulative_improvement.png llm_position_advantage.png llm_confidence_correlation.png

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 13 Discrepancy Log

TypeSourceClaimActualResolutionVerified By
Matchup Correction Vegas Lines Subagent Original game list had incorrect matchups (SEA vs NYJ, etc.) Corrected to actual Week 13 matchups: MIN @ SEA, ARI @ TB, KC @ DAL, GB @ DET Used corrected matchups from Vegas subagent web searches NFL.com schedule, ESPN API roster data
Subagent Partial Data Defense Matchups Subagent Expected complete 1-32 rankings for all opponents Returned partial data with many 'Unk' values - only ~30% complete Used available ranks (WSH 30th vs RB, LV 28th vs WR, CLE 2nd vs RB) and defaults for missing FantasyPros points allowed referenced in subagent output
Injury Status Conflict XGBoost Boom/Bust Model Bucky Irving has 54.5% bust probability Irving returning from 8-week injury, expected ~36% snap share per Coach Bowles Verified return status via Buccaneers.com - playing but limited snaps WebSearch - Buccaneers official site, Pro Football Network
Projection Mismatch ESPN API (IBM watsonx) Marvin Harrison Jr. projected 13.7 points MHJ practiced LIMITED Wed/Thu after Nov 10 appendicitis surgery - still questionable Set is_confirmed_out=true, LLM projection = 0.0 (conservative) Pro Football Network, AZ Cardinals official site
Weather Alert Weather Subagent Normal conditions expected for all games Denver has HIGH WIND (21 mph) - significant passing game impact Downgraded Evan Engram confidence to LOW, noted in weekly context AccuWeather Denver forecast
Fallback Triggered generate_weekly_mc_report.generate_mc_report Expected weekly context file for Week 13 File not found - no LLM-gathered context available Using default boom/bust probabilities (no opportunity adjustments) Unk
Api Failure generate_weekly_report.read_mc_report Expected successful Monte Carlo generation Exception: No weekly context for 'Bucky Irving'. Available: [] Report generation halted - investigate error before publishing Unk
Api Failure generate_weekly_report.read_mc_report Expected successful Monte Carlo generation Exception: '<=' not supported between instances of 'str' and 'int' Report generation halted - investigate error before publishing Unk
Api Failure generate_weekly_report.read_mc_report Expected successful Monte Carlo generation Exception: '>' not supported between instances of 'NoneType' and 'int' Report generation halted - investigate error before publishing Unk

Log timestamp: 2025-11-29T17:06:38.871528